Isabel Brás

Cised team members
Isabel Brás

Funding
PDR2020;
PRORURAL+;
PRODERAM2020;
PORTUGAL2020;
Fundo Europeu de Agrícola de Desenvolvimento Regional

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Identification of the problem or opportunity that it proposes to address

The production of chestnut is strongly conditioned by the average and extreme weather conditions verified during its annual cycle. The diseases and pests that affect and decimate chestnut trees are also associated with specific environmental conditions. Thus, the economic potential and development strategy of the Castanha Row in Portugal face the difficulties resulting from climate variability and climate change (see technical annex). Climate projections for the future in Portugal suggest significant changes in mean values ​​(temperature and monthly and annual precipitation), in variability and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (e.g. intense precipitation, drought, heat waves, etc.). This initiative arises in the context of the Fileira's growth strategy (increase in the production area) and aims to provide a set of products to support political decisions and support producer associations. Climate changes currently observed and projected for the future, such as the global increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation regime, will have, among other effects, a strong impact on the vegetation cover, extremely dependent on atmospheric conditions.

The chestnut tree presents weaknesses resulting from the low tolerance to the combination of water and thermal stresses that result in the loss of vigor and productivity as well as an abnormal increase in the mortality rate of trees. In fact, recent data from INE for the period between 2000 – 2015 reveal that chestnut production:
(i) decreased from 33,000 to 24,000 ton, despite the increase in the cultivated area from 29,000 to 35,000 ha; and,
(ii) shows high interannual variability with extreme cases clearly associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic episodes during the growing season.

Furthermore, it is necessary to take into account the biotic and abiotic threats, responsible for undesirable fluctuations in the fruit market (production and price), which constitute serious problems for the chestnut processing industry. Despite this situation, the sector shows strong growth dynamics reflected in a strategic plan, framed in the proposal of the European chestnut group, to counteract the decrease in chestnut production in Europe, in order to increase the production area to 50,000 ha until 2020. This initiative/proposal arises in order to seize the opportunity of the sector's development strategy and, in the context of climate change.

Aimed objectives
In a context of strong growth dynamics in areas of new plantations, it is urgent to provide accurate information to potential investors about the culture model. It is intended to characterize the regions from the point of view of present and future climatic conditions as well as to provide a set of climatically influenced biotic and abiotic parameters that allow technicians and producers to make the best decisions resulting from climate change, namely, to successfully adapt, the existing chestnut groves to the new soil and climate conditions and the definition of new areas for cultivation, in order to maintain adequate levels of nut production.
ClimCast's goals include:

– Comparar comportamento do conjunto das variedades recomendadas para cada DOP em locais com condições climáticas contrastantes;
– Monitorizar a evolução dos solos onde serão feitas as plantações, dada a dependência das suas características físico-químicas e biológicas com as condições meteorológicas e climáticas, nomeadamente da temperatura e precipitação;
– Implementar o sistema de monitorização climática ClimCast a partir de cada uma dessas unidades de demonstração, que permitirá recolher informação detalhada em cada SD, melhorar o conhecimento da relação entre as condições meteorológicas e o castanheiro e que será o embrião de uma futura rede de avisos para o castanheiro;
– Identificar as variáveis meteorológicas, índices de deteção remota e outros parâmetros (e.g., índices de seca) com maior potencial preditivo da produtividade da castanha em Portugal;
– Caracterizar climaticamente as principais regiões produtoras de castanha, nas condições atuais e de clima futuro para permitir selecionar a melhor variedade para cada situação edafoclimatica;
– Mapear as regiões produtoras e potencialmente produtoras de castanha em função das suas características climáticas e consequente aptidão para a produção de castanha, criando uma graduação da situação de risco da cultura;
– Desenvolver modelos climáticos de produtividade e carta de produção potencial da castanha em Portugal;

And, finally, to produce a manual of good chestnut cultivation practices, in the context of climate change, aimed at producers in this sector.

Action plan summary
The new challenges for the grove in the context of climate change. The economic potential and development strategy of the Castanha Row in Portugal faces several difficulties resulting from variability and climate change. The production of chestnut is strongly conditioned by the average and extreme weather conditions verified throughout its annual cycle. The diseases and pests that affect and decimate chestnut trees as well as the presence of rot and pests on the fruits are also associated with specific environmental conditions. Climate projections for the future in Portugal suggest significant changes in mean values ​​(temperature and monthly and annual precipitation), in variability and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (e.g. intense precipitation, drought, heat waves, etc.). This initiative arises in the context of the Fileira's growth strategy (increase in the production area) and aims to provide a set of products to support political decisions and support producer associations.

Status / Results
GO's actions focus on two main axes:
1) Installation of demonstration chests accompanied by the installation of weather stations
2) Climate modeling.

Em relação ao ponto 1, começamos por salientar que a data de inicio do GO acabou por condicionar a instalação dos soutos. Na verdade a primeira reunião geral do GO foi a 13 de janeiro de 2018, data em que apesar do adiantado da época para preparar plantações se decidiu avançar. Veio mais tarde a verificar-se não ter sido a melhor opção porque as plantações foram feitas a partir de inícios de março, tendo-se verificado bastante insucesso nos pegamentos conforme reportado nos relatórios. Daí para cá, fizeram-se as replantações e foram feitas as primeiras enxertias em 2019. Estamos ainda numa fase de reenxertias, embora se tenha já começado a retirar informação dos soutos.
Em relação ao ponto 2, os trabalhos de modelação estão numa fase bastante avançada, havendo já modelos de previsão de produção, baseados em histórico de dados climáticos, com grau bastante grande de fiabilidade. Em relação aos dados das estações meteorológicas estão a centralizados, estando articulado todo o processo.